--- title: "PC shipments fell a fifth while DRAM contract prices rose 5× in a year" summary: "Worldwide PC shipments by quarter from IDC, Gartner and Counterpoint, and TrendForce's DRAM contract-price changes, July 2025 to September 2026: what they mean for a laptop refresh." url: https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/pc-shipments-fall-memory-prices-ai-data-centres format: Trend desk: "Markets & the AI economy" published: 2026-10-23 facts_checked: 2026-10-23 author: TechBag (The TechBag Journal) tags: ["PC shipments","DRAM","memory prices","AI data centres","HBM","IDC","Gartner","Counterpoint","TrendForce","laptop refresh","Windows 10"] cover: https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/covers/pc-shipments-fall-memory-prices-ai-data-centres.png --- # PC shipments fell a fifth while DRAM contract prices rose 5× in a year *Worldwide PC shipments by quarter from IDC, Gartner and Counterpoint, and TrendForce's DRAM contract-price changes, July 2025 to September 2026: what they mean for a laptop refresh.* Trend · Markets & the AI economy · By TechBag · Published 2026-10-23 · Facts checked 2026-10-23 · Canonical: https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/pc-shipments-fall-memory-prices-ai-data-centres The short version - The world shipped about a fifth fewer PCs from July to September than a year earlier: 62.7 million and down 20.1% by IDC’s count, 55.4 million and down 22.4% by Gartner’s, 57 million and down 21% by Counterpoint’s.[1][2][3] - Over the same year, DRAM contract prices rose in every quarter. Compounding TrendForce’s quarterly estimates puts the price at five to almost six times its level of a year earlier; Gartner’s analyst puts DRAM costs at five times.[2][8] - IDC and TrendForce trace the memory squeeze to AI data centres, which take capacity away from PC memory. None of the analysts expects laptop prices to return to last year’s level soon.[1][9] Two lines crossed in 2026. PC shipments, which grew by double digits at the end of 2025, turned down in the second quarter and fell sharply in the third. Memory prices did the opposite: the contract price PC makers pay for DRAM, the working memory in every laptop, roughly doubled in a single quarter at the start of the year and has kept rising since. This piece sets the two series side by side, reports who says what connects them, and asks what that means for a company planning to replace its laptops. ## The line: a fifth fewer PCs, in a quarter that is normally bigger IDC counted 62.7 million desktops, notebooks and workstations shipped worldwide in the third quarter of 2026, 20.1% fewer than a year earlier and 9.1% fewer than in the second quarter. IDC notes that the third quarter is normally larger than the second.[1] Gartner’s preliminary count is 55.4 million, down 22.4% from 71.3 million.[2] Counterpoint’s, published on 22 October, is 57 million, down 21% year on year and 13.8% on the quarter.[3] The three firms count differently, so their totals differ; their rates of decline sit within 2.3 points of each other. **Figure: IDC's count fell from 80.5 million PCs at the end of 2025 to 62.7 million in the third quarter of 2026, the lowest of the five quarters** *Worldwide PC shipments (desktops, notebooks, workstations), millions of units, by quarter, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026* | | Worldwide PC shipments | | --- | --- | | Q3 2025 | 78.5 | | Q4 2025 | 80.5 | | Q1 2026 | 67.9 | | Q2 2026 | 69 | | Q3 2026 | 62.7 | Source: IDC Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, release of 8 October 2026 (Figure 1) · as of 8 October 2026 · Q3 2026 is preliminary. IDC's year-on-year changes: +10.5%, +12.4%, +3.0%, −3.8%, −20.1%. The fall was uneven. In IDC’s table HP shipped 30.9% fewer PCs, Dell 25.0% and Lenovo 22.6%; Apple fell 11.3% and ASUS 8.6%. The three largest makers gave up 4.2 points of share between them.[1] Gartner, as reported by VARINDIA, linked HP’s fall to its exposure to price-sensitive consumer and mainstream business buyers.[2] ## What drives it: memory prices, in the analysts' reading TrendForce, which tracks the contract prices memory makers charge PC, phone and server makers, put the rise in conventional DRAM at 10–15% in the third quarter of 2025,[4] then 45–50% in the last quarter of 2025, 93–98% in the first quarter of 2026 and 58–63% in the second.[5][6][7] PC memory alone was forecast to rise 105–110% in the first quarter.[5] The rises have slowed, not stopped: 13–18% in the third quarter and a forecast 10–15% in the fourth.[8] **Figure: DRAM contract prices rose every quarter, by almost 96% at the start of 2026; the rises are smaller now but have not reversed** *Change in conventional DRAM contract prices on the previous quarter, midpoint of TrendForce's range, %, Q3 2025 to Q4 2026* | | Conventional DRAM contract price | | --- | --- | | Q3 2025 | 12.5 | | Q4 2025 | 47.5 | | Q1 2026 | 95.5 | | Q2 2026 | 60.5 | | Q3 2026 | 15.5 | | Q4 2026 (f) | 12.5 | Source: TrendForce press releases of 24 September 2025, 2 February, 31 March, 3 July and 30 September 2026 · as of 30 September 2026 · Each quarter from the latest TrendForce table that reports it. Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 are estimates; Q4 2026 is a forecast. Ranges: 10–15, 45–50, 93–98, 58–63, 13–18, 10–15. TechBag countFive times in a year Compounding TrendForce’s four quarterly rises from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the third of 2026 puts the contract price at 5.0 times its level a year earlier on the low ends of its ranges and 5.7 times on the high ends; 5.3 times on the midpoints. This is our arithmetic on estimates, not a TrendForce figure. It agrees with Gartner’s Namrata Banerjee, who said DRAM costs “surged five times year-over-year in the second quarter”.[2] Why memory is short is the analysts’ reading, not a measured fact. IDC lists “higher price points driven by AI data center build out” among the causes of the decline.[1] TrendForce says memory makers are moving capacity toward HBM, the stacked memory in AI accelerators, and toward server DRAM,[6] and that PC memory supply “could decline in 2027 as more capacity shifts to server applications”.[8] The firms weigh the other causes differently. IDC puts the inventory pull-in first: PC makers and distributors bought early in the year to beat price rises, which left the third quarter with little demand.[1] Counterpoint points to a high comparison base, because the third quarter of 2025 was inflated by purchases ahead of the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline.[3] Gartner’s Banerjee said the higher memory and storage costs are “now fully reflected in PC pricing”.[2] ## What it means for a laptop refresh **Prices.** In March TrendForce modelled a mainstream notebook listed at US$900 and found that keeping makers’ and resellers’ margins intact would need a price rise approaching 40% once memory and processor costs were passed on.[9] By the third quarter, processor, DRAM and SSD made up about 68% of that notebook’s bill of materials.[10] IDC expects promotions in the near term as distributors clear stock, but says prices “will remain elevated” and well above last year’s.[1] **Specifications and supply.** TrendForce lists cutting memory capacity as one of the ways makers may hold a price.[10] It also warns that circuit boards, capacitors and power chips could see higher prices or longer lead times in 2027.[10] Gartner, as reported, saw vendors reprioritise scarce components and shift toward higher-priced configurations.[2] **The outlook.** Counterpoint expects fourth-quarter shipments to fall 27% and 2027 to be broadly flat; its David Naranjo says “stabilization should not be mistaken for recovery”.[3] TrendForce expects 2027 notebook shipments to fall by a low single-digit percentage, or a high single-digit one if makers pass all their costs on.[10] **The Windows 10 clock.** Waiting for prices to fall has its own cost. The second year of Windows 10 Extended Security Updates starts in November at US$122 a device, double the first year.[11] Our [piece of 14 October](https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/windows-10-one-year-on-india-41-percent) sets out which Windows 10 PCs to upgrade, pay for or retire. Our viewHow we would plan a refresh this quarter Our view: price the refresh on today’s quotes, not last year’s budget. Put memory and storage in the quote line by line, so a cheaper model with less memory cannot pass as a discount. Upgrade the PCs that can run Windows 11, and buy new only where an old machine fails the hardware test or the work needs it. None of the three firms forecasts a return to 2025 prices in the next few quarters. If you are buying this in India We found no IDC India figures for the third quarter published by 23 October, so this piece has no Indian shipment number. The fact that bears on Indian buyers is the size of the refresh still to come: in September Windows 10 accounted for 41.2% of Windows desktop page views in India, against 27.8% worldwide.[12] More of India’s fleet still has to be upgraded or replaced while memory is at these prices. **What to watch.** IDC, Gartner and Counterpoint published their third-quarter counts between 8 and 22 October, so their fourth-quarter counts should follow in January; Counterpoint’s 27% forecast is the number to test.[3] TrendForce’s next contract-price call, for the first quarter of 2027, should come around the turn of the year; its call for the first quarter of 2026 came on 5 January. A fourth-quarter rise near the 10–15% forecast would mean the price is still climbing.[8] How we did this Figures as of 23 October 2026 Shipment figures are each firm’s preliminary count; we do not mix them in one series. The quarterly series in the first figure is read from IDC’s own chart in its 8 October release. Gartner’s release refused our request, so its figures and quotations are as reproduced by VARINDIA. DRAM changes are TrendForce’s quarter-on-quarter estimates for conventional DRAM, excluding HBM, taken from the latest table that reports each quarter; we chart the midpoint of each range. The five-times figure compounds those estimates and is our arithmetic. The link between AI data centres and memory prices is attributed to IDC and TrendForce. Excluded: memory makers’ quarterly results due after 23 October, spot prices, and Indian retail prices, for which we found no dated source. Spotted an error? Write to us; corrections are published at the foot of the piece. Sources 1. [IDC, PC Market Woes Continue: Shipments Fall 20.1% in Q3 2026 as Pull-In Hangover and Supply Constraints Bite](https://www.idc.com/resource-center/press-releases/idc-pc-tracker-3q26/) — 8 October 2026 2. [Gartner, worldwide PC shipments declined 22.4% in Q3 2026, as reported by VARINDIA](https://www.varindia.com/news/global-pc-shipments-fall-22-4-in-q3-2026-amid-component-cost-inflation) — Gartner release 12 October 2026; VARINDIA 13 October 2026 3. [Counterpoint Research, Global PC Shipments Plunge 21% in Q3 2026; Q4 Decline to Deepen to 27%](https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/global-pc-shipments-plunge-21-percent-in-q3-2026) — 22 October 2026 4. [TrendForce, DRAM Prices to Continue Rising in 4Q25 (3Q25 estimate)](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20250924-12733.html) — 24 September 2025 5. [TrendForce, Memory Price Outlook for 1Q26 Sharply Upgraded (4Q25 table; PC DRAM)](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260202-12911.html) — 2 February 2026 6. [TrendForce, AI Server Demand to Drive Memory Contract Price Increases in 2Q26](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260331-12995.html) — 31 March 2026 7. [TrendForce, AI Server Demand Continues to Support Memory Prices in 3Q26](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260703-13134.html) — 3 July 2026 8. [TrendForce, AI Server Demand Sustains Memory Contract Price Increases in 4Q26](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260930-13258.html) — 30 September 2026 9. [TrendForce, Rising Memory and CPU Prices Could Push Mainstream Notebook Prices Up by Nearly 40%](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260310-12959.html) — 10 March 2026 10. [TrendForce, Rising Costs Threaten Notebook Demand in 2027](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20261008-13264.html) — 8 October 2026 11. [Microsoft Learn, Extended Security Updates program for Windows 10](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/whats-new/extended-security-updates) — page dated 17 November 2025 12. [Statcounter Global Stats, desktop Windows version market share, India and worldwide](https://gs.statcounter.com/windows-version-market-share/desktop/india) — September 2026 **Disclosure.** TechBag is a software reseller: it earns a margin when a reader buys through it, including from vendors named here. The analysis is TechBag’s own; no vendor paid for or saw this piece before publication. Facts are labelled reported, TechBag count or our view. Go deeper on TechBag - [Windows 10, one year on: India at 41%](https://www.thetechbag.com/blog/windows-10-one-year-on-india-41-percent) — which Windows 10 PCs to upgrade, pay ESU for, or replace - [UEM & MDM guide](https://www.thetechbag.com/browse/endpoint-management/uem-mdm) — the consoles that manage a laptop fleet through a refresh - [RMM & patch management guide](https://www.thetechbag.com/browse/endpoint-management/rmm-patch) — keeping older machines patched while a refresh is deferred