PC shipments fell a fifth while DRAM contract prices rose 5× in a year

01The line: a fifth fewer PCs, in a quarter that is normally bigger

IDC counted 62.7 million desktops, notebooks and workstations shipped worldwide in the third quarter of 2026, 20.1% fewer than a year earlier and 9.1% fewer than in the second quarter. IDC notes that the third quarter is normally larger than the second.¹ Gartner’s preliminary count is 55.4 million, down 22.4% from 71.3 million.² Counterpoint’s, published on 22 October, is 57 million, down 21% year on year and 13.8% on the quarter.³ The three firms count differently, so their totals differ; their rates of decline sit within 2.3 points of each other.

The fall was uneven. In IDC’s table HP shipped 30.9% fewer PCs, Dell 25.0% and Lenovo 22.6%; Apple fell 11.3% and ASUS 8.6%. The three largest makers gave up 4.2 points of share between them.¹ Gartner, as reported by VARINDIA, linked HP’s fall to its exposure to price-sensitive consumer and mainstream business buyers.²

02What drives it: memory prices, in the analysts' reading

TrendForce, which tracks the contract prices memory makers charge PC, phone and server makers, put the rise in conventional DRAM at 10–15% in the third quarter of 2025,⁴ then 45–50% in the last quarter of 2025, 93–98% in the first quarter of 2026 and 58–63% in the second.⁵⁶⁷ PC memory alone was forecast to rise 105–110% in the first quarter.⁵ The rises have slowed, not stopped: 13–18% in the third quarter and a forecast 10–15% in the fourth.⁸

Why memory is short is the analysts’ reading, not a measured fact. IDC lists “higher price points driven by AI data center build out” among the causes of the decline.¹ TrendForce says memory makers are moving capacity toward HBM, the stacked memory in AI accelerators, and toward server DRAM,⁶ and that PC memory supply “could decline in 2027 as more capacity shifts to server applications”.⁸

The firms weigh the other causes differently. IDC puts the inventory pull-in first: PC makers and distributors bought early in the year to beat price rises, which left the third quarter with little demand.¹ Counterpoint points to a high comparison base, because the third quarter of 2025 was inflated by purchases ahead of the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline.³ Gartner’s Banerjee said the higher memory and storage costs are “now fully reflected in PC pricing”.²

03What it means for a laptop refresh

Prices. In March TrendForce modelled a mainstream notebook listed at US$900 and found that keeping makers’ and resellers’ margins intact would need a price rise approaching 40% once memory and processor costs were passed on.⁹ By the third quarter, processor, DRAM and SSD made up about 68% of that notebook’s bill of materials.¹⁰ IDC expects promotions in the near term as distributors clear stock, but says prices “will remain elevated” and well above last year’s.¹

Specifications and supply. TrendForce lists cutting memory capacity as one of the ways makers may hold a price.¹⁰ It also warns that circuit boards, capacitors and power chips could see higher prices or longer lead times in 2027.¹⁰ Gartner, as reported, saw vendors reprioritise scarce components and shift toward higher-priced configurations.²

The outlook. Counterpoint expects fourth-quarter shipments to fall 27% and 2027 to be broadly flat; its David Naranjo says “stabilization should not be mistaken for recovery”.³ TrendForce expects 2027 notebook shipments to fall by a low single-digit percentage, or a high single-digit one if makers pass all their costs on.¹⁰

The Windows 10 clock. Waiting for prices to fall has its own cost. The second year of Windows 10 Extended Security Updates starts in November at US$122 a device, double the first year.¹¹ Our piece of 14 October sets out which Windows 10 PCs to upgrade, pay for or retire.