33 of 56 listed vendors fell 30% or more; what changes at renewal and what does not

01Thirty-three of 56 fell 30%; four were still that far down on 19 October

We took the daily closing price of every listed company behind a TechBag vendor hub, from 31 December 2025 to 19 October 2026: 56 companies on Nasdaq, the NYSE, the NSE, Frankfurt, Paris and Tokyo. Thirty-three of them closed at least 30% below their year-end price on some day this year. Most of those lows came in two windows: the software sell-off after 28 January, when the S&P 500 software and services index shed about US$1 trillion in seven sessions by Reuters’ count, and the week to 10 April.¹²

Atlassian closed 64.8% below its year-end price on 10 April and was 32.4% above it on 19 October. Rapid7 fell 66.8% by 9 April and had recovered to 13% down. The four still 30% or more down were Quick Heal (43.0%), HubSpot (41.5%), N-able (39.2%) and monday.com (36.7%); Adobe was just short at 29.4%. Over the same period the S&P 500 rose 12.4% and the iShares software ETF was flat.¹

02The share price is not the balance sheet

The four that stayed down are not in the same position. HubSpot’s revenue for April to June grew 19.8% to US$911.7 million; it ended June with US$1.38 billion in cash and investments, no borrowings under a US$500 million credit line it signed in February, and US$312 million of operating cash flow left after capital spending in the half. It spent US$743 million buying back its own shares in the same six months.³ monday.com’s revenue rose 22% to US$364.6 million, with US$1.07 billion in cash and marketable securities and no debt after it used the whole of a US$870 million buyback.⁵

N-able grew revenue 5.9% to US$138.2 million and holds US$115.8 million in cash against a US$398 million term loan that matures in November 2032; in June it added a US$75 million delayed-draw facility for acquisitions and buybacks.⁶⁸ Quick Heal, the Pune company behind Seqrite, reports no debt, but its revenue for April to June fell 21.4% to ₹45.0 crore, with consumer revenue down 39.3% and enterprise revenue down 5.5%, and an operating loss (EBITDA) of ₹17.6 crore.⁹¹⁰

Read the filing in this order: revenue growth in the latest quarter against a year earlier; cash and investments; debt and its maturity date; operating cash flow after capital spending; and any going-concern language from the auditor. A company buying back its own shares is telling investors it has more cash than it needs. A company drawing on credit lines while revenue shrinks is the opposite case.

03What a fall feeds into: pricing, people, roadmaps and owners

A falling share price raises the pressure to show investors margin and growth, and the filings this year show four ways it reaches customers. The first is pricing. ServiceNow moved every product to three tiers on 9 April, combining seats with other meters and a pool of AI tokens, and did not publish the prices.¹² We covered the move from seats to credits, and what to ask for when a vendor proposes it, in our 1 July analysis of the software sell-off.

The second and third are people and roadmaps. On 6 October HubSpot told staff it would cut about 7% of its workforce, nearly 660 people, at a cost of US$65 million to US$75 million. Its chief executive, Yamini Rangan, wrote that the company had “shifted our strategy from building software that helps customers grow to delivering outcomes for them with AI”, that the shift “is transforming product, pricing and how we serve our customers”, and that product teams would be organised “around these outcomes instead of hubs”. She also wrote: “This is not driven by AI-related efficiencies.”⁴ N-able approved a 6% reduction on 20 July to “align investments with highest priority opportunities”.⁷ Freshworks announced about 500 roles, 11% of staff, on 5 May.¹¹ The filings do not tie these decisions to the share price, and neither do we; they are what a buyer of these products lived through in the same year.

The fourth is ownership. Jamf, the Apple device-management vendor, left Nasdaq when Francisco Partners’ take-private at US$13.05 a share, about US$2.2 billion including debt, was reported closed on 2 February.¹³ Palo Alto Networks completed its US$25 billion purchase of CyberArk in February¹⁴, and on 12 May relaunched the portfolio as Idira, so CyberArk customers now see a new name on quotes and contracts.¹⁵ A lower share price makes a vendor cheaper to buy; what a buyer needs to know is what the contract says when that happens.

04Six clauses that hold when the share price does not

Large buyers write these protections in as a matter of course. When Anthropic committed about US$11.6 billion to Akamai for dedicated computing capacity, the master agreement let Anthropic terminate “upon a change of control of the Company in favor of a direct competitor of Anthropic”. In the same filing, Akamai disclosed that its own hardware agreement with Lenovo lets Akamai terminate for convenience, “subject to certain notice requirements and payment of specified termination costs”.¹⁶ A smaller buyer will not get every clause, but each is worth asking for in order of what it protects.

A share-price fall makes the multi-year offer more tempting and more risky at once. A vendor that needs bookings will trade price for term, and a three-year lock at today’s price is worth having from a vendor with net cash and growing revenue. From a vendor whose revenue is shrinking, take the shorter term, or take the longer one only with clauses 2, 3 and 5 in place.